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« Weighing the Week Ahead: Clarity Coming on Key Market Challenges? | Main | Fiscal Cliff Notes - Plan B Edition »

December 18, 2012

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Comments

oldprof

Dan -- Thanks for highlighting this. Barry's post is here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/10-midweek-pm-reads-5/

It is nice to see Dwaine getting some well-deserved attention.

As you (and other regular readers) know, I have been highlighting this work for over a year!

Thanks again,

Jeff

Dan Baffoe

Barry posted this Jeff. Thought you might be interested in light of your search for the best...

http://recessionalert.com/recession-forecasting-ensemble-rfe-macro-market-timing/

Proteus

Torture the data until they confess.

I've played with the Citi index before, and here's what I see...
The Citi index goes up and down, sometimes a lot. The peaks can be more extreme than one might imagine. If you see a peak at an extreme value that is lower (or higher) than any others in the past 10 years, think about buying (or selling). Otherwise, it's just a moderately interesting chart that sometimes leads and sometimes lags market turns, and sometimes has the wrong sign.

Eric

I think the other problem with this chart comparison is that it does not acknowledge what really precipitated the correction of 2011: the S&P downgrade of US debt.

wkevinw

Great stuff as always.
Back to the "scared" internet.
I was wondering what you think of Kyle Bass' prediction of a Japan bond/inflation/currency crisis.

Thanks for your hard work.

Kevin

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