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« Weighing the Week Ahead: An Early Verdict on Q3 Earnings? | Main | October Employment Report Preview »

October 30, 2012

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MCX TIPS


all publishing news about mcx are really helpfull and meaningfull for stock market.you cover all stock tips in this post.thanks for sharing.......

oldprof

scm0330 -- sorry -- I meant per quarter.

Thanks for catching.

Jeff

scm0330

Jeff,

7.5 million new jobs a month? That's 90 million annually. Our employed workforce is 143 million or so. That would mean the average job in the economy lasts 19 months...I know things are bad, but that bad?

oldprof

scm0330 -- Job cuts are always chunkier, more visible, and more newsworthy. There are 7.5 million new jobs every month, and you don't hear about most of them.

In terms of forward earnings, I look at the earnings history as well as expectations when selecting stocks. This is more important than an overall market opinion.

But there is interest in market valuation and earnings trends. I have demonstrated that bottoms-up analysts are the best source for one-year predictions, a useful time frame. The top-down guys pontificate about "headwinds" and have only rough models for adjusting. Most pundits do even worse. None of them have a measurable record.

More here: http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2010/10/profiting-from-forward-earnings-estimates.html

Good question -- and probably time for me to do an update on this.

Thanks,

Jeff

scm0330

Jeff, a comment and a few questions. The earnings calls this quarter have included an awful-seeming nummber of job cuts and restructurings. This is "Bad," it seems. We have a demand problem in the economy.

Could you elaborate a bit on how you use forward earnings in assessing opportunities? I think, at present, there's a pretty wide gap between bottom-up (analysts) and top-down (strategists) forward estimates for the SP500. Is one estimate set more valuable to you in your work? At any rate, since forward estimates are almost always higher than trailing (and almost always ratchet lower as a year unfolds), I am wondering what is their overall utility in your market work? What do forward estimates reveal to you?

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