My Photo
Note: Jeff does not accept guest blog posts on A Dash of Insight.

For inquiries regarding advertising and republication, contact

Follow Jeff on Twitter!

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner


  • Seeking Alpha
    Seeking Alpha Certified
  • AllTopSites
    Alltop, all the top stories
  • iStockAnalyst
Talk Markets
Forexpros Contributor
Copyright 2005-2014
All Rights Reserved

« Weighing the Week Ahead: An Early Verdict on Q3 Earnings? | Main | October Employment Report Preview »

October 30, 2012



all publishing news about mcx are really helpfull and meaningfull for stock cover all stock tips in this post.thanks for sharing.......


scm0330 -- sorry -- I meant per quarter.

Thanks for catching.




7.5 million new jobs a month? That's 90 million annually. Our employed workforce is 143 million or so. That would mean the average job in the economy lasts 19 months...I know things are bad, but that bad?


scm0330 -- Job cuts are always chunkier, more visible, and more newsworthy. There are 7.5 million new jobs every month, and you don't hear about most of them.

In terms of forward earnings, I look at the earnings history as well as expectations when selecting stocks. This is more important than an overall market opinion.

But there is interest in market valuation and earnings trends. I have demonstrated that bottoms-up analysts are the best source for one-year predictions, a useful time frame. The top-down guys pontificate about "headwinds" and have only rough models for adjusting. Most pundits do even worse. None of them have a measurable record.

More here:

Good question -- and probably time for me to do an update on this.




Jeff, a comment and a few questions. The earnings calls this quarter have included an awful-seeming nummber of job cuts and restructurings. This is "Bad," it seems. We have a demand problem in the economy.

Could you elaborate a bit on how you use forward earnings in assessing opportunities? I think, at present, there's a pretty wide gap between bottom-up (analysts) and top-down (strategists) forward estimates for the SP500. Is one estimate set more valuable to you in your work? At any rate, since forward estimates are almost always higher than trailing (and almost always ratchet lower as a year unfolds), I am wondering what is their overall utility in your market work? What do forward estimates reveal to you?

The comments to this entry are closed.