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« Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for Politics? | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: A Lull Before the Storm? »

August 13, 2012

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oldprof

Matt -- You are free to think whatever you want about Hussman, but your comment about me being "blindsided" is completely wrong.

Check out this article that I wrote in April of 2008: http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2008/04/how-to-win-a-re.html

I was quite open to the possibility that a recession might eventually be deemed to have started in 2007.

But I keep trying to do better, which is why I conducted the search starting in May of 2011 and leading to the work I cite every week.

Bob Dieli has done better and done it longer in real time. The RecessionAlert team has methodology that is much stronger than Hussman's.

Matt -- we are both consumers of other people's forecasts, but it is important to stick to the facts. I did the work of researching these sources both to help me in my work, and as a service to individual investors. Feel free to ignore the data and stick to your preconceptions!

Jeff

Matt

Hussman predicted the last recession to begin in real-time exactly when it began. You, on the other hand, were completely blindsided and were confident there would be no recession, just like you're doing now. And Hussman is the one who lacks credibility, eh?

jeffrey bottaro

PARANOIA has adaptive value when its INWARD ALLOCATION exists in some dynamic and responsive balance with its OUTWARD ALLOCATION. If you never question your own habits of cognition and bias, and fear ONLY external threats, you become prey to the very purveyors of those external threats.
We all want to have money; desire is an emotion. To tell an investor NOT to invest on emotion is like telling a lover NOT to be romantic because romance can result in compromised objectivity. The only helpful resolution of all of this would therefore be to recommend that one's emotions and their triggers BE CONTINUOUSLY EXAMINED WITH HONESTY.

W at Off-Road Finance

In general Republicans do tend to have mild first term recessions since they typically withdraw various stimulus measures.

That's not necessarily a bad thing though.

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