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« April Employment Report Preview | Main | Why Not to Panic about Europe »

May 05, 2012

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oldprof

Jonas - I am obviously satisfied with the accuracy of the Silver Oz analysis or I would not have cited it. Perhaps you can explain what Tyler was trying to say and do it better than he could:)

You could also look at the Birth/Death adjustment, where ZH mistakenly subtracts a NSA number from the SA report, something that nearly everyone now knows is incorrect. If you read my employment preview, you also know that the B/D adjustment is not adding enough jobs, based upon the last quarter of actual data we have.

ZH was also completely wrong about the one-time census adjustment affecting the participation rate a couple of months ago, and never admitted the error (nor did Santelli, who used their analysis).

Here's a question for you: Back in January did they add over 200K jobs because of the negative B/D adjustment, telling you that the numbers were much better than the report? Just wondering.

The ZH site is probably the most popular financial blog, and their influence is huge. They seem to do a lot of ridiculing and name-calling, and the comments are even more aggressive, so the Silver Oz warning seems like fair play in the context.

They clearly have a great model for making money for themselves, but it is difficult to help readers if they cannot trust your work and you do not correct mistakes.

Thanks for reading here, and I encourage you to read diverse viewpoints with a critical eye.

Jeff

Jonas Haraldson

As much as I value your primarily data driven approach, I also value the voice of Zero Hedge. One of the few rebellious voices daring to highlight issues and opinions that the more Pollyanna biased mainstream media won't touch is worth a lot. I think we can all see that it has a bearish slant, but that doesn't reduce its value as a complementary information source.

I read the Bonddad blog and also the ZH post the was criticized. As far as I can tell by going to the source data and doing the numbers, Bonddad simply didn't understand what ZH was trying to say. Instead, Silver Oz chose to ridicule and disparage ZH. Unless I have misunderstood everything, I think that an apology is due and that the silver bullet should be revoked.

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