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« A Question for Shiller Disciples: Why the interest in profit margins? | Main | May Employment Preview »

May 27, 2012

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Paul

Thanks for the new link (to Fundamentalis). I'll spend the time to read all his posts.

You ask: "Does the current market reflect the speculation or the facts?" In my opinion, it reflects speculation, no doubt. Sometimes I wonder if traders are pricing really stupid things, like a zombie apocalypse.

Fundamentalis makes a great point of the effects of "p/e compression" on record earnings (ie what the S&P is giving us now). I completely agree with him, it is very discouraging to see ourselves in the low 1300's. Again...

Around the time of the Japanese earthquake last year, I assumed that we would have been over 1500 at the end of 2011 (a p/e of 15 or so). I don't consider myself a raging bull, but I'm certainly not a bear either.

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