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« March Employment Report Preview | Main | US Stocks Decline: Time to Sell? »

April 07, 2012

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oldprof

bfuruta -- I correspond with Dwaine, but he did not mention his reasoning in this choice. He is very analytical and methodical. Perhaps I can pose the question, or you might go to his site and ask it yourself.

It is interesting that he has such a wide range of indicators (even more than publicly revealed) and none of them agree with Hussman and the ECRI.

Jeff

bfuruta

Jeff, once more, thanks for sharing your perspective and insights. This week's post seemed longer than usual. I was intrigued by the new recession predictors from van Vuuren using the Philly Fed State Coincident indicators and from Chris Puplava's use of breadth indicators.

I noticed the Philly Fed website also had State Leading Indicators. Do you have any idea why van Vuuren chose the Coincident indicators over the Leading ones to produce a Leading Indicator for recessions? I wonder if the Leading ones produced false positives. I downloaded both sets of indicators and will play with them.

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