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« Bernanke to Savers: We don't owe you a living | Main | Navigating Silly Season: An Investor Guide to the Political Landscape »

February 05, 2012

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Joe

Addendum:

The last 2 1/2 paragraphs are not mine (meant to put it in italics), but Bruce Krasting's.

Joe

Re: "None of this contradicts the improvement in employment"

This is where we disagree. There were no actual net jobs created in January -- not a single net job (only fantasy phantom jobs due to an inflated above average seasonal BLS adjustment).

I am perplexed as to why you continue calling the above average seasonal adjustment (most probably secondary to above average warmer weather in January: April-like weather, but January-like seasonal adjustment) as an "improvement" -- maybe an improvement in weather, but not in the number of actual net jobs.

I am just sick and tired of constant lies and propaganda from our corrupt government, from CNBC liars, from most media, from corrupt bloggers like Barry Ritholtz, and even from the chairman Ben Bernanke.

In the prepared remarks before CJEC, Mr. Bernanke omitted reference to TIPS/Bond spread that he used last October 10/4/2011. Why?! Because the five-year TIPs/Bond spread was at 1.60% in October, a very low rate of expected inflation. That's no longer true. Today this TIPs inflation is 2.21%. Mr. Bernanke omits critical information that would argue against his policies -- equivalent to lying.

Mr. Bernanke is prepared to manipulate data (and any other damn thing he can lie about) in an effort to make people believe he is doing the "right thing." He’s not doing what is right for the country any longer. He's in the process of ruining it.

Mr. Bernanke ignores ample evidence that the economy has long since passed the Emergency Stage. He's so pregnant with his monetary policy that he can’t see (or just chooses to ignore) that the fire is out, the emergency is over, and his monetary policy should be in the process of normalization. That failure will cost everyone, big time.

You can read more about Bernanke lies here.
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2012/02/bernanke-talks-his-book.html

oldprof

Joe -- I think we agree on several points:

1) Employment growth is much weaker than we need and the economy is growing way below trend. I have written about this many times.

2) Labor force participation is much lower than it was ten years ago.

3) Many people have decided to retire early, go back to school, travel abroad, or take jobs that do not reflect their full skills.

None of this contradicts the improvement in employment in the most recent report, and the bogus analysis by many leading web sites and TV "experts."

I am trying to keep people focused on the actual economic story in an environment that is dominated by political spin.

Feel free to step on the soap box, but I think the positions are quite clear. If you think you are refuting something I said, you have some sort of incorrect impression.

Jeff

oldprof

RB -- Thanks -- very helpful.

Jeff

derek

what a world that we can now "meet" others who share similar passions, glad we can provoke new thoughts on occasion. Best to you, keep up the great work!

Joe

David Stockman about the recent "there was an improvement and also improvement in labor force participation":

"In short, if you spend a little time with these numbers you will know that they are being made up."


DAVID STOCKMAN: It's True, The BLS Data Is Made Up
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-stockman-its-true-the-bls-data-is-made-up-2012-2


Larry Summers (and Jeff Miller) on the Labor Force Participation Rate
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2012/02/larry-summers-blows-it-on-tv.html

RB

Jeff,
The articles here are worth a look as well.

oldprof

RB -- Thanks for the "heads up." I'll take a closer look for next week's WTWA.

I really depend on great readers for help!

Jeff

oldprof

Derek -- Your work is extremely valuable, and I always read it. A few years ago -- perhaps mistakenly -- I had the idea that I would recognize one of my regular sources at a time when I could feature a single post.

That has probably not worked out very well! Meanwhile, I salute you for many contributions that have helped me, not just the one cited here.

Jeff

RB

Sometime before, in what was very much my financial infancy, I'd commented here regarding overvaluation in Orange County California. Prices are now at or below rental parity, and my timeframe prediction then wasn't bad. We have been in the market for a home, the problem has been insufficient inventory rather than affordability. I see that CR is out with a bottom call too.

derek

thx for the mention, Jeff...you've been one of "never miss" reads for years so I'm glad I could contribute to the discussion

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