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« Navigating Silly Season: An Investor Guide to the Political Landscape | Main | Investors: Read a lot, get squat! »

February 12, 2012

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cd7

Great stuff as usual, Jeff. I just read something you wrote in Nov 2006, very true today, as well:

"Paying attention to underlying fundamentals like earnings and interest rates provides a firm foundation for assessing risk and reward. The key to this approach is that conventional sentiment measures refer only to those who are currently invested in the market. If all of the current players are bullish, there is no additional money to buy stocks.

The conventional indicators, however, ignore fresh money. At "A Dash" we think about individual investors who are overly-committed to real estate, foreign investors who have little exposure to U.S. equities, mutual fund managers who have chased returns abroad, and hedge fund managers caught short.

In times of serious market over-valuation, these groups were "all-in." Not now....

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