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« My Bespoke Roundtable Answers | Main | Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli »

January 11, 2012



Thanks, Proteus.

Good points, and I will certainly use the link.



Proteus; thx for the link and well said. Jeff; thanks for all of your incredible writing on this blog!


Jeff: Great writing; there is a lot of ground to be covered.

If you haven't seen it, Stone Street Advisors has a posting up ( saying pretty much the same thing - a recession did not start in December based on coincident indicators. They have a nice set of plots illustrating the data they use.

I think what bothers me the most about this issue is there's no apparent downside if you predict a recession and you're wrong. You can always blame it on the Fed :)
But if you're an economist and you miss predicting a recession, you get egg on your face.

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