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« Want to make money? Take off your ideological blinders! | Main | Nature Abhors a Vacuum -- and so do Financial Journalists! »

December 25, 2011

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oldprof

Regret -- Thanks for your kind wishes.

You have accurately cited the single study that supports a particular viewpoint -- the seductive idea that there is some tipping point related to debt.

This deserves more than I can do in the comments. I understand that people are impressed with the scholarship -- the broad sweep of history, etc.

My own reaction is that they need more non-economists involved.

Even if you restrict to economists, there are serious questions about causation, as noted here:

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-08-02/markets/30055661_1_debt-burden-debt-to-gdp-ratio-lower-deficits

We all wish that we had more data and more certainty.

Great comment - and I need to write more on this theme.

Thanks,

Jeff

Regret

First, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and your family.

Regarding the concept of an incremental solution to Europe's problems. I agree that this is the most likely path, but I'm less certain that it will succeed. I'm no expert on these things, but doesn't Kenneth Rogoff (and others) make the point that the complex financial system is inherently unstable and that it can reach a point of no return?

oldprof

Thanks, Leo.

It is very encouraging to know that people find my work useful, and take it in the spirit offered.

Happy New Year to you:)

Jeff

Leo

Hi Jeff,
Just wanted to thank you for your blog (I'm a devout reader of yours), and wish you a Happy Christmas and a great New Year.

I really appreciate the effort you put into your posts.
Your blog is really unique.

Thank you,
Leo
(from Jerusalem, Israel)

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