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« FOMC Preview: Bernanke's Third Press Conference | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: The European Crisis Resumes »

November 03, 2011

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oldprof

Pacioli -- The BLS does a monthly revision that results from more businesses responding, so that is not what I am talking about here.

They do an annual benchmark revision to compare their estimates with the actual counts from state employment offices. If this benchmark revision is small, it means the process has been pretty accurate. If it is negative, it means that the process has added too many jobs. If positive, it has added too few.

In September the BLS announced the preliminary data. It showed that there were 192,000 more jobs than we thought. The actual adjustment will be made in February for the January report.

Here is the link: http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesprelbmk.htm

Thanks for the question.

Jeff

Pacioli

"For anyone who really wants to know, the BLS methods have been under-estimating new job creation. Who could have known?"

I do not doubt your claim. But could you please provide a link? Thanks!

oldprof

AlMaine -- I am a big McTeer fan, and enjoyed my conversations with him at the Kauffman meetings. Thanks for the kind words and the pointer.

Jeff

oldprof

RB -- Good one!

The Diamond entry was the winner. I'm not sure the upper and lower case J's show up well in the image. We all got four votes and I liked all of these.

Jeff

oldprof

scott -- nice link!

Thanks,

Jeff

AlMaine

Jeff - More great work. Just came across Bob McTeer's blog - he was president of the Dallas Fed. He hits the nail on the head in his recent column - "The first rule of forecasting should be don’t do it. Nothing good comes from it. The second rule, is, if you give a number, don’t give a date; or, if you give a date, don’t give a number. My rule, the third rule, is, if you have to do it, do it often."

RB

Banksters take the Street
Refusing to give credit -
A crisis gone waste


Waldman was the best conceptually, though I liked the sound of Felix's better.

scott

Mr. Waldman is the clear winner. Reminds me of this infamous stimulus plan:
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090412230059AA0wvIn

Way less than endless Fed purchases or TARP plans...

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