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« Profit Margins: The right answer to the wrong question | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Bernanke »

April 24, 2011


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Every article I wrote in those days, every speech I made, is full of pleading for the recognition of lead poisoning as a real and serious medical problem.

john personna

Oh I know I'm light stocks, but at least not as badly as I used to be.


John - you are correct in noting that this was a very polite debate, with some deference being paid to Prof. Seigel's Stocks for the Long Run.

I have seen Dr. Shiller make the same sort of point in other contexts, and I think I have even written about them. He probably does not realize how many people use his work to go "all in" or "all out" instead of as one guide to asset allocation. This has been a costly mistake.

While you are waiting for your once in 30 years opportunity, you might consider what path will get us there. The only way we get a single digit P/E is via high interest rates and that means inflation.

I use inflation expectations as part of my portfolio instructions (mine are higher than most) and I trust that you do as well.

Good luck with your personal asset allocation -- and it is a matter of personal circumstances.


john personna

A young person with a 50% equity allocation is pretty conservative by most standards. "Your age in bonds" would put them much higher.

So, I interpret this as Shiller being diplomatically pessimistic.

Re. opportunities every 30 years, sometimes bonds beat stocks for 30 years. Overall I'm with Shiller as he looks at more "human spans" than with Seigel and "inhuman patience"

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