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« ETF Update: The Risk and Reward for Gold | Main | Will the Democrats Lose Control of the House? »

April 21, 2010

Comments

yourpaldal

Hopefully Jeff has been wise enough not to take George as a client. George isn't going to get it. Discuss the weather with him and wish him a good day.

walt

Jeff: did your forecasts include widespread fraud in writing mortgages? It sounds to me like your models are little more than cycles of data, by definition from the past. Are you including the price of energy?

I see Hussman as the anti-Jeff. He is a perma-bear who is never wrong, but never right, and just keeps collecting his fees.

oldprof

Mike C -- I am still with my 2010 forecast picks. I love the Windows 7 upgrade cycle and everything linked to it. You are getting a chance to buy these names -- like last year -- and also some attractive health care stocks in hospitals, devices, managed care and related fields.

Thanks for the recognition on Apple. Holding on to winners as the story improves is one of the big challenges.

Jeff

Mike C

BTW, in the spirit of giving credit where credit is due, great call/stance on Apple which you've mentioned a number of times.

What are some other individual names you like here?

Mike C

So how should I explain this to George, whose mind is made up?

Is this a rhetorical question? If George isn't a client, then it probably isn't that important.

Just read the Big Short the other day. The book opens with a quote from Tolstoy that I think is one of the best I've ever read and is directly applicable to your question about George, and perhaps also to someone with the absolute polar opposite view from George.

There is only one thing I am certain of in this current economic/stock market backdrop, and that is that it has the potential to make fools out of both doom and gloomers calling for S&P 400 and also those who think "America is back to "NORMAL"" where normal means the economy and market of the last 20 years.

My own view and what I would tell George is that now is the time to be humble in what you think you know and what you do not know, especially the "unknown unknowns" to steal from Rumsfeld.

One can cite a litany of studies, evidence, metrics on both sides, and it isn't just pundits citing headwinds (Reinhart and Rogoff).

Meanwhile, I would point out to George that many statistics support a bullish outlook. As Ned Davis would say, I would ask George, do you want to be right or make money?

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/a-very-rate-breadth-thrust-buy-signal-from-ndr-3979.html

I remain cautiously optimistic and bullish, mostly invested with clear-cut risk management rules in place just in case George's "guy with a system" turns out to be right.

My final question to George would be do you want to make your investment decisions on opinions or data? Follow the preponderance of the data and the trend.

Trading Goddess

Thanks! Keep up the good work!

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