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« Understanding the Debate on the Dollar | Main | ETF Update: Rebound in China? »

November 14, 2009

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stock market news

This Stock Blog gives insight on daily stock market trading as well as stock trading analysis and technical analysis of the Stock Market and individual stocks making the news. We don't give Stock Picks ( I guess the stocks that I buy are stock picks ) but we do give stock alerts on the best stocks to watch and the hottest stocks to trade daily. stock market live Stock trading blog

forex trading journal

Truly appreciable post if I don’t appreciate you it should be my mistake or something disappointing for you. Great job keep it up.

oldprof

Tim -- I am not quite sure what to say, except that I encourage you to read the article again and also to follow the link to the prior piece in this series.

This article is an objective analysis of data. The conclusion is that dollar strength is correlated with higher market prices in the long run, a conclusion you seem to favor.

There are a lot of viewpoints about the relative dollar value, all of which you will see if you follow the link.

Thanks,

jeff

Tim

There is an inverse relationship, but you are going nowhere fast.

Say $1US is equal to $1EU

The dollar then loses half its value against the EU.

Because of your inverse relationship the US stock market doubles in $US since the currently lost half.

In $EU the stocks still have the same value (twice the price in dollars worth half as much).

A weak currency is bad. Show me a prosperous county with a crappy currency.?? China is booming and the currency would rise except for China's meddling. Europe is dying and so is the Euro. This is not an inverse relationship.

Michael Weiss

interesting article

I agree with your inverse relationship.

Thank you for your post.

Ron Stone

Interesting point. I would never had agreed except for the hard data you present. I do however believe the dollar is going lower, perhaps much lower. With all the money the Fed is pumping into the US economy, I don't see how it could go any other way.

graspthemarket

I'm in agreement with your inverse relationship. There has been a correlation since the market’s bottom, and I confirmed that point-of-view by watching hours of how the US futures (including silver) reacted against the dollar. For example, when the dollar weakened, silver rallied. As I noted in the “Bottom Line” section of the site, during the Tuesday overnight futures session, the dollar fell about .75% compared to the Euro. In the past, SLV would have opened on Wednesday morning by that percentage or higher. However, on Wednesday morning, silver was up only .05% at the market open. This information proved to be useful because this may have signaled a turn in the market. The next trading session on Friday showed a dramatic drop in SLV along with the rest of the markets. SLV was down more than 3%. Silver has been holding onto the up sloping trend line from its bottom. The trend line appears to be very accurate because silver keeps hitting it. A strong break of the trend line would confirm the Sell-Off action on Friday. I show a chart of this here:

http://www.graspthemarket.com/elliottwave/20091130a.php

graspthemarket

I updated my view on the dollar and silver here. http://www.graspthemarket.com/articles/20091122a.php I confirmed many of the feelings above just by watching the overnight futures on tv and at the same time watching a carry trade play out. Amazing what is going on.

Mitch (Hate my zero radius sink) Nelson

Interesting article, thanks so much for this post.

Colin Martin

Jeff,

Don't have the same data set as you but I believe there is strong inverse correlation between DXY and S&P500 from 2001/2002 onwards not just recently. Longer term there is no apparent correlation due to the sign of the correlation changing in 2001/2002 timeframe. Suspect post 9/11 interest rate policy is a potential root cause.

graspthemarket

I think silver is more telling than gold in terms of the US dollar. I discuss my point here. scroll down on the page to read the article about my view on silver.
http://www.graspthemarket.com/articles/20091115a.php

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