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« The Perils of Data-Fitting | Main | August Employment Report Preview »

September 01, 2009

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Daniel


Astonishing! Where do you come up with this treasure-trove of reference material, RB? Are you curator at the Oracle of Delphi?

>> "We find strong lunar cycle effects in stock returns. Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive..."

..A reference librarian at the Akashic Records?

All I know for a fact, which I got from a NOVA program on Public Television, is that the same macro tidal/gravitational pull that the Moon exerts on the oceans also occurs on a micro level on water everywhere, including in our bodies. I have no guess as to how this fact of physics correlates with the research observations you unearthed, RB.

Very interesting. Lunacy as a "quantifiable edge."

Dashin Jeff, if your smile was a smile I share it with you. If it was a smirk, I have no use for you. Get me Vince.

Daniel

oldprof

RB -- Theories you want, theories you get :)

Jeff

RB

I actually didn't expect to find this.

VennData

^
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Whacko

Daniel

Excellent post, RB! And you, Dashin-Jeff, as well!

The stock market is a closed system. However, there are (at least) four factors which impose 'spin' on it from OUTSIDE the system. They are all very real. Two have obvious effects; two are more subtle and impossible to quantify.

Taxes and tax-deadline dates cause ripples of perturbation. Selling is induced for non-market reasons.

Quarterly and Annual performance snapshots cause all the tracked managers to become little squirrels adjusting their bowties and windowdressing their Portfolios, and then smiling for the camera. Then afterwards they go back to where their real models would have them. This also causes EXTERNALLY induced ripples.

The moon exerts a tidal pull on ALL water on Earth. All means all. This includes the oceans. This includes the water molecules within our bodies. This is real. What is hard to quantify is WHAT the effect is, as the Moon waxes and wanes--although many have tried...

MAJOR (and only major) astrological configurations of the planets exert broad emotional influences, either through electromagnetic variances, electronic variances, or the waxing and waning strength of the radio-wave signals they emit. (Anyone who thinks this is foo-foo is just dumb. Go to the NASA website, they have recordings of what the various planets “sound” like. What IS foo-foo are most of the simplistic interpretations of what these effects will be.)

Perhaps the serotonin-level variances and vitamin D variances that come with reduced hours of sun exposure (mentioned in RB’s excellent post) CAN be included as well.

Sometimes one must look to sources OUTSIDE the Market to explain the seemingly inexplicable within the Market.

Daniel

RB

There are other theories as well.

RB

Bernanke did have a theory for Octobers . I recall reading a relation with the release of economic reports during this timeframe, but I can't remember who or what exactly.

Russ

Well said. The September "horror" story seems to be getting even more press than usual this year. I'm tempted to view it as a contrarian indicator, a la magazine covers. Of course, everything I just wrote is purely anecdotal, which is no way to invest.

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