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« Interpreting Housing Indicators | Main | ETF Update: Hope for Health in a Bad Market? »

July 01, 2009

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Dnarby



Hi Jeff,



Well, I sincerely hope you prove me wrong.  In fact, I really, really,
really hope I'm wrong about *all* of this, and that we are not heading
towards financial Armageddon.



But I'm afraid I'm not.



The upside of Armageddon is we will be forced to create a new financial
system from scratch, but that's a big topic...



Good luck, hope you make a bundle on this next leg down.  The insane
negative rate in Sweden should prove fuel for that fire...  Can you say
BANK RUN?  Holy cow.








oldprof

Dave -- A negative rate is a real stunner all right. It might be a reasonable charge compared to using the mattress method, as this woman found out! http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Million-Dollar-Mattress-Hunt-Is-On-After-Money-Lost-At-Local-Dump-In-Tel-Aviv-Israel/Article/200906215300534?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header_4

Just kidding, of course.

If you have been reading, you know that we maintain an official stance, adjusted each week. For the moment, we are also bears, and will be next week as well.

As to the birth/death adjustment -- if you will stay with us and keep your mind open, you might be surprised at what you learn.

Thanks for your comment and the interesting link.

Jeff

Dnarby

The main (and most obvious) problem with the govt's employment reports is their birth death "model".

IMO, it has been, and continues to be, wildly optimistic.

BTW, Sweden just cut interest rates to negative 0.25%.

From the "Bearish Blogging Network" http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/sweden-cuts-deposit-rate-to-negative-25.html

You won't find that tidbit (with the source site) in the news feeds... Hmmm...

But the Internet being what it is, get ready for that bomb to circulate through the markets.

This and other reasons are why I'm a bear... And 100% short the 3X small caps.

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