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« ETF Update: Inverse ETF's and the Investor Toolbox | Main | Employment Situation Report Preview »

June 30, 2009

Comments

Renaissance Clothing

"Calculated Risk, a favorite and featured source, also focuses on the seasonally adjusted data." Risk vs Reward has always been the mantra of investors, unfortunately both of those values are in such flux it is impossible to know which way to turn

Steve van Emmerik

Sorry typing error above - was talking about the last 2 months not the last 5 months.

Steve van Emmerik

Excellent info. I find it amazing how often the wrong numbers become the focus of the equity and bond markets based on however bloomberg or reuters intially report it. In the short term that's the interpretation that matters but when the next related data point comes out the mistaken emphasis often shows up.

On the latest Case-Shiller data the most interesting thing I found was that for the five "non boom" cities the change in prices was basically 0 over the last 5 months (with a range of -2% to +1%) while in the boom cities the average was -3.8% (range -1% to -7%). Clearly a signficant difference, both statistically and practically speaking. So the recent trend is that in the non boom cities prices are almost stable despite the rising unemployment while in the cities which had booms the price falls are slowing but still there.

I'll blog some more at http://reflexivityfinance.blogspot.com/ about what are likely to be longer term dynamics in housing markets/foreclosures.

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