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« Lessons from Tanta | Main | A Search for Catalysts »

December 02, 2008

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oldprof

My commenting friends --

Thanks for the valuable suggestions. They are all great and I will add them to the list.

It is a list that will grow faster than I can write!

Thanks to all.

Jeff

VennData

The government is "socializing" America.

The Fed has "spent" five trillion in "bailouts."

The dollar will soon be "replaced" as the world's reserve currency.

Obama's Thanksgiving week announcements "caused" the stock market to go up.

More regulation is coming.

The Credit Default Swap Market has failed.

Mike C

"It is important for everyone to realize that this is a time of extreme stress, and therefore a time of opportunity."

IMO, definitely opportunity.

"Warren Buffett has lost it."

This one allowed me to pick up some Berky B shares at 2700ish recently. I suspect with the passage of time that the recent drop below 3000 will look just like the drop to 1400 in March 2000 which was the last time Buffett had "lost it".

Here is an item and I think the conventional "wisdom".

Crude oil at 150 was a bubble JUST LIKE the NASDAQ hitting 5000 in 2000 or the Nikkei hitting 40,000 in 1989 and are levels that won't be seen for 10, 20, 30 years. The speed and magnitude of the recent decline in crude is "proof" of a "bubble bursting".

Certainly there was some "speculative premium" in crude oil prices but maybe some of the recent drop is NOT just a bubble bursting but a fundamental reaction to demand destruction that may not last forever, and perhaps we will see $100+ crude oil much sooner then conventional wisdom expects if the long-term peak supply argument is correct, and marginal plays like the oil sands continue to get delayed, slowed down, or canceled entirely due to the current price which is below the marginal cost of many of these newer supply sources.

Long-term opportunity here in crude oil and energy related stocks?

RB

How about: Fannie and Freddie are the root cause of the current crisis.

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