With President Bush still pondering what to do about aid to the US auto companies, the question is attracting the interest of pollsters. The results have varied quite a bit. How you ask the question has a lot to do with what you learn. A question on the proposals is featured by nearly every pollster. You can check out all of them at PollingReport.com's Business Issues section.
Two Very Different Results
Let us feature two polls to illustrate how results can vary widely.
The Washington Post-ABC News poll was headlined as follows by MSNBC:
Majority opposes auto bailout, poll shows
The article pointed out that most opposed the bailout, held the companies accountable for their own errors, and noted that 60% felt that it would make no difference or be good for the economy if one or more were forced to restructure under bankruptcy laws.
Here is the main question and the responses, showing some improvement from an earlier poll using a larger amount:
21. The federal government is considering loaning up to 14 billion dollars to the Big Three U.S. automakers and putting in place a government board to oversee their restructuring. Some people say (it's a bailout those companies don't deserve, and that they'd be better off reorganizing under bankruptcy laws). Other people say (it's necessary to protect auto workers and save a key part of the U.S. economy). On balance, do you support or oppose this plan?
-------- Support -------- --------- Oppose -------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
12/14/08 42 20 22 55 21 34 3
Compare to:
The big three automakers in the United States have asked for up to 34 billion dollars in loans from the government. Some people say (it's a bailout those companies don't deserve, and that they'd be better off reorganizing under bankruptcy laws). Other people say (it's necessary to protect auto workers and save a key part of the U.S. economy). On balance, do you support or oppose this plan?
-------- Support -------- --------- Oppose -------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
12/7/08 37 17 20 54 23 30 10
11/23/08* 35 18 17 57 21 36 9
* 25 billion
There has been some reduction in opposition, whether from the changed amount or from the news coverage.
The Peter D. Hart Research Associates poll, conducted a month earlier, was headlined by the Detroit News as follows:
New poll says majority of Americans support bailout for Detroit's automakers
The key summary came from Mr. Hart:
"Americans' broad support for providing government assistance to the auto industry is built mainly on a genuine fear that a failed GM, Ford, and Chrysler could lead to a depression," said Peter Hart, chairman of the firm. "But their support also is grounded in the hope that a revitalized auto industry could mean good things for the manufacturing sector and the country as a whole."
In the Hart approach, the respondents were asked a series of questions, providing more information as part of the process. Here are a few of the questions and some of the responses. (Full survey available for download here.)
4. How important do you feel the American automobile industry is to the American economy--extremely
important, very important, somewhat important, not important, or not at all important?
5. If the American automobile industry no longer had the resources to produce vehicles, how much harm would
it cause to (READ ITEM)--a great deal of harm, quite a bit of harm, just some harm, or very little harm?
6. Do you believe that the government should or should not provide loans to America's automakers so they
have the money to manufacture vehicles?
Government should provide loans ............. 55 [147]
Government should not provide loans ....... 30
Not sure ................................................... 15
7. President-elect Barack Obama has stated that one of his first economic priorities as president is to make
sure that the American automobile industry continues to be able to operate, and he favors an economic
assistance program to help them. Do agree or disagree with him?
Agree................................................ 64 [148]
Disagree ........................................... 25
Not sure.......................................... 11
You can see the change in the response when people are asked whether they agree with President-elect Obama.
Our Take
In our survey research classes we had many illustrations showing how small changes in wording or polling technique can make a big difference in the result. These two polls show that effect quite clearly.
Both polls were conducted by highly-respected research organizations using scientific methods.
One of these polls (guess which!) was paid for by General Motors, although the company had "no input or review of the design, methodology, content or interpretation."
Most importantly, leaders are supposed to lead, not just follow public opinion. It is still interesting to know what people think.
