Dangerous Extrapolation

Much of what we read in investing includes reaching back in history to a few instances of something and then suggesting that "today is like that."  We have often pointed out the danger of such reasoning.

As a test, we heard a bit of trivia which seems to be correct.  There is a fundamental "setup" that has occurred six times over 70 years.  This "setup" has had a 100% success rate.  It covers all of the potential instances, and therefore does not seem to be data mining.

There are good psychological and motivational reasons to believe in this relationship.

Are you ready to make the trade?  Do you want to know?

The Trade

The last six coaches of the University of Michigan football team have beaten Ohio State in their first season, going back to Fritz Crisler and Bennie Oosterbaan.

Tomorrow will be the first Michigan/Ohio State game in the Rich Rodriguez era.  Ohio State is favored by about three touchdowns.

Would you take Michigan?

If not, remember this example the next time someone shows you a stock chart of the current market compared to some other country or time period.