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« ETF Update: Systems and Breaking News | Main | ETF Update: A New Look at Gold »

November 26, 2008

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dissertation

Blogs are good for every one where we get lots of information for any topics nice job keep it up !!!
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Dissertation

geir gudnadson

Funny how all these bloggers keep interviewing each other. Looks like they are trying to legitimize themselves by establishing sort of a vicarous prestige.
Funny how all these bloggers keep writing and selling "advise". Most have been at trading for years (or so they say), and still are little more than ham-and-egg journalists.

oldprof

Will - This comment is not a fair characterization of the initial article,
nor even your own initial reply. As I remember it, you were in general
agreement.

I certainly did not "flame" Olick. In fact, I praised her ability, poise, persuasiveness, and journalistic success. I highly recommend reading the original article.

One does not need to know Latin to understand that this article was not an ad hominem attack. When someone offers opinions on a regular basis, it is quite proper to consider his or her qualifications. It is also important to analyze the merits of the argument. I did both. It is a dangerous error for readers and investors to dismiss qualifications and skill.

My particular concern with the CNBC presentation is that they make stars out of journalists, who then start acting like they are experts rather than media figures. It is perfectly legitimate for critics of journalism to point out that a main role is eliciting the right information from their guests. The Olick approach to explaining housing works well with people who know nothing about economics. It happens that I have another article on the agenda that uses her in a similar example. She characterizes existing housing inventory as a group of people who will not "get real" about prices, and suggests that this inventory will not be sold until prices are cut. Feel free to take a guess at my position!

Thanks for the comment, and for reminding us all of this example, although I am sorry you see it as a "flame."

Jeff

Will

Isn't this the same Jeff that flamed Diana Olick [8/2007 Dash of Insight article: Do Internet and Media Resources Help the Individual Investor (Jeff thinks not)] for an interview including her and two academic "experts" in the summer of '07, saying of her comments, "Those who do not understand economics try to 'dumb down' the argument."
***
P.S. Here were her comments:
It’s about sentiment. Obviously people feel that their wealth is in their home. For Americans, it’s their biggest investment by far. So when you feel that your home is not worth what it once was, that you can’t pull home equity out of your house like you might have been able to a couple of years ago, you just don’t feel as wealthy as you once did, and that of course translates into consumer spending and how we’re going to spend our money. We’re already hearing from the homebuilders that renovations are starting to fall… and that dribbles over into places like Home Depot that fuel everything that goes into our houses. All of these things have a ripple effect, so when you feel that your home is not worth as much as it was before, even if you’re not putting it on the market, it definitely has a fundamental effect on how you see your own wealth.
***
Jeff's main point was that she couldn't have a valid opinion because she's not [what he would deem] an "expert" (and from the title of his article, I'm guessing he thinks the investing public was not well-served by her spouting such unsound statements). I believe that's close to the definition of ad hominem, but then again, 'I ain't got no PhD in latin'.

Jeff's own observation in the same article was this:
***
Diana Olick describes what she sees as "typical behavior." In our neighborhood we have seen a very different story in the following in the last few days:

* Furniture vans unloading major purchases.
* Home additions under construction.
* New stone patios and landscaping going in.
* Complete tear downs and new construction in somewhat older adjacent areas.
***

My response was an article entitled "Let's All Move to Jeff's Neighborhood", but I have no formal training in economics whatsoever, so all the crap I wrote from years back about insane ideas like Real Estate Crises, debt deflation and a looming severe recession should be dismissed along with Ms. Olick's observations.

What we need here is some calm and sanity. Clearly, we should all place our faith (and money) with The Experts.

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