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« Market Technicals and Fundamentals Converge | Main | Sentiment is Slow to Change: a Basketball Lesson, Part One »

April 07, 2008

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VennData

With Kansas favored by one and a half, you're better off betting the dog.

Vegas sports books payout eleven for ten, bet a hundred and sixty five dollars to get your desired $150 (two outcomes: lose $165 or take $315)

Expected payouts:

Kansas by two or more 1500 - 165 = 1335

Kansas by one 1500 + 150 = 1650

Memphis win 1200 + 150 = 1350

If Memphis loses by one win and the spread's 1 1/2, you get both your Kansas win and your Memphis "hedge bet."

You can shave the original $165 to get a few more pennies optimally, but that's the way to play a hedge.

Rachel @ Master Your Card

What a useful post. It has got me thinking about some of the small investment risks that I am taking and whether maybe I should be doing a little more to potentially get a much bigger return.

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