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« Calling Mr. Blackwell..... | Main | Prospects for Banks and Financials »

March 27, 2008

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gaius marius

thank you for the undeserved mention, dr. miller. i should try to contextualize my quote -- i personally think this high-fear environment is a good risk to go long for the intermediate term, though that doesn't come through in my post. but i do also have longer term valuation concerns that lead me to think there will probably be further compression of the earnings, dividend and book ratios at some point in the next handful of years.

thanks again!

Bill

I actually laughed out loud when I read the WSJ headline. The worst decade for stocks since the 1970's? That's not exactly a lot of decades to look at.

Shrek

Its the ever increasing amounts of cheap credit that have been elevating asset prices for at least a decade. Sure, some asset classes will continue to rise, but if they are backed by suspect collateral its going to be a lot tougher.

Bill aka NO DooDahs!

My concern was not so much that it was "an opinion piece in research's clothing," but that it was just ... stupid, out-of-context, useless crapola. I got pinged with that article twice that day, and my response both times was "it needs a beating."

I certainly tried to aim my post at the DIYer who may be unduly influenced by negative hack pieces like that one in the War Street Urinal, since I peppered the post with phrases like:

"... presenting the fact that the last so-many-days/months/years have underperformed, without presenting contextual information or actionable strategies, is the kind of “infornography” that gets read by the “Bloomers Babe” in a 15-second slot from the trading floor, but doesn’t do a damn thing to help anybody."

"With foreign developed and emerging markets, commodities, REITs, and foreign and domestic bonds all easily available through mutual funds and ETFs, there is no excuse for passive players to not be diversified!"

"... keep in mind that, for active players, the indices’ performances are irrelevant."

and

"Your system, your asset allocation, and your personal triumph over the fear and greed responses you have to the market, will be the REAL determinants of your success." ~ which I believe I left as a comment here yesterday.

I've long ago given up on the idea of "unbiased media," and while the "news" content of the Urinal might be as useful as "news" can be (marginally so), I found precious little (actually, I found nothing) of use there for the DIYer who wanted to improve their trading (ahem! "investing") process.

I share your lament that content which might be of actual value to the improvement-seeking DIYer is rare, and much less widely read than content which is useless or actually deleterious to them, but you gotta admit, that's where the market is! What we do, the audience we try to reach, is a NICHE.

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