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« Party Like 1999? | Main | Mortgage Availability and Personal Consumption: The Dubious Relationship Breaks Down »

April 30, 2007

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Comments

Nova Law

Yowie! More bad news. Factory orders at their highest level in a year. Poor Barry. Stock market at record highs, IWM survey very strong, factory orders going up. It's a very bad day for a bear.

Come to think of it, most days have to be bad days for bears. Their curse is to go through life sad, afraid, and generally wrong. Schleprock on Wall Street.

Nova Law

Uh oh. Six o'clock and there's nothing from our favorite bear (and jazz aficionado). Maybe if we ignore it, all this good news will go away. :-)

Nova Law

ISM number comes in remarkably bullish. Still waiting for Barry Ritholtz to "drill down" the numbers to explain that things look really, really bad. Hopefully by 6:00 pm he'll have that up on Big Picture.

REW

Wow, 54.7 which is correlated to 4% GDP growth.
Will this economy please make up its mind!

Jeff

Hi Russ,

Thanks for your comment. You are quite correct, of course. Manufacturing output has increased, even while jobs in those companies have declined. Productivity therefore increased.

The decline I cite should have been stated in terms of GDP share.

It is great to have informed and careful readers!

Jeff

REW

Prof,
I love the point about ISM and GDP being correlated but not causally linked.

I must nit-pick at your claim that "manufacturing is in a long-term decline". Isn't it more accurate to state that manufacturing output is at an all time high in terms of production value but is declining in its share of GDP?
Thanks,
Russ

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