My Photo
Note: Jeff does not accept guest blog posts on A Dash of Insight.

For inquiries regarding advertising and republication, contact main@newarc.com

Follow Jeff on Twitter!

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Certifications

  • Seeking Alpha
    Seeking Alpha Certified
  • AllTopSites
    Alltop, all the top stories
  • iStockAnalyst
Talk Markets
Forexpros Contributor
Disclaimer
Copyright 2005-2014
All Rights Reserved

« The Scatter Plot Challenge | Main | Ben and Barry.....and Barney, too »

February 13, 2007

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451ddb269e200d83518e50369e2

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Market Multiple Compression: Revisiting a 2004 Prediction:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Rower32

Very nice explanation Prof!

oldprof

Tom -- Thanks for your comment! And you get the main idea. My analysis of this research was not really aimed at a particular market recommendation. It is about the difficulty in interpreting research.

I love Taleb's book, Fooled by Randomness, and bought many copies to send to clients.

Two things --

First, I do not believe that those doing this research were intentionally trying to deceive or mislead. It is very easy to think that you have made an exciting discovery, particularly when you are supposed to be cranking out new material every week. Academics have more luxury to re-examine and get peer review.

Second, if you stay with this series, you will see that some apparently non-statistical methods are just as misleading!

Thanks again.

Jeff

Tom L

This is one of the most important articles I've read in months. Not because of the specific market conclusions, but for the illustration of how dangerous it is to rely on statistical presentations coming from other people, even supposedly reputable sources. Nassim Taleb has talked a lot about how widespread this kind of thing is and this example is great. It has everything: misuse of fitting functions, massaging of data, misleading graphical depictions... A really excellent, concrete example and warning to the non-statistically-savvy amongst us out there.

oldprof

Thanks!

marlyn trades

You have an amazing site - well written and always an interesting visit. Just wanted you to know that I "clicked thru" from Seeking Alpha to ensure you got the hit for this wonderful piece of work.

Thanks.

RB

Nice. Look forward to your upcoming two-dimensional projections of multi-dimensional graphs :).

The comments to this entry are closed.