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« Hedge Fund Job Applicant #4 | Main | Roubini and Malpass on Kudlow »

October 17, 2006



Jason -- Thanks so much for weighing in with your comment. I think that many share your views. I plan to describe a method for meeting the challenge. For now, I hope that other readers will also comment.



Well, for what its worth, here are my 2 cents.

1) Not very likely (I would give a number, but that wouldn't be very useful without some error estimates).
2) It would be very, very bad for stocks.
3) The upside would be pretty limited, IMO.

So that being said, while I think the soft-landing people are right, I'm not entirely convinced that one should be in stocks.

Also, I'm no good at making macro predictions, and am not really about to start placing bets on that. Speculating on it is still fun though. As my father always used to say, it is better to be lucky then smart, but it is even better to know which you are. I'll just stick to bottom-up research.

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