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« Housing Replaces Baltic Dry Index | Main | Recession Odds »

August 12, 2006


Chris Smith


Doug Kass has now been on the "wrong side" of the "recession trade" since at least August of 2006. He has obviously had to trade AROUND his position....if not take it off the table completely at sometime between August of 2006 and February of 2007.

It is now April of 2007 and he is singing the same song he sang back in August of 2006. Certainly we are a lot closer to AT LEAST a correction.......but again, he least so far, on the wrong side of the trade again. Technically the market is setting up in a POSSIBLE broadening top....with important resistance levels coming up (which will be new all time highs for many of the indexes except the NAZ).

From a TECHNICAL standpoint it looks like we will soon have another correction (I actually expect it to start later this week), but the economy STILL LOOKS stronger than the picture that Doug paints.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute ( are the "experts" with the economy......I follow them closely. No recession in sight yet. I think I will go wih their call rather than Doug's on the economy.

Chris Smith

Erick Stratton


Great article on Doug Kass. What has his historical annual returns been over the past 5-10 years?

All best,



Hi Doug,
Thanks for stopping by. You must have been as frustrated as your listeners by the short time, but it is still nice to (again) be a featured guest.

I read the elaboration of your views on Street Insight first thing yesterday. [For those who are not subscribers to this service, Doug manages to write a daily diary of ideas, on-the-fly, while trading. He begins each day with a more reflective piece, often pulling together various loose threads.]

Yesterday's opening commentary explained several points more clearly (at least for me) than some of the past discussions. I know that you constantly reexamine each element of your view, and this makes it easier for the rest of us to follow your reasoning. Then, as you would expect and encourage, we have to make up our own minds!

Doug Kass

Its always hard to condense one's complex view of the world economies and investment strategy in a three minute soundbite on CNBC!
That said, Street Insight offers my thoughts in a more detailed manner.
Thanks for the nice write up,

Doug Kass
Seabreeze Partners

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